Energy Demand & Population Evaluation – Future Projections

In this age, with advanced technology that entered our lives, energy has become an essential element more than ever. The batteries, phones, computers, lighting simply electricity related objects require an energy in order to have their duties. The nations are built their own cities, factories, plants, and utilities to proceed continuity and to develop community itself. Moreover,  energy and its problem became an issue since the energy-demand-rise as a cause of an over population.

The population growth is increasing rapidly. (Refer: Below World Population Growth, 1750-2100) And if the death ratio is smaller than the growth ratio, cumulatively the world population will be increased as a result. On the other hand, energy demand is expected to be higher from today. Every living creature requires some fundamental needs such as eating, feeding, sleeping,  moving etc.. to survive on this planet. To supply fundamental and additional needs, energy is needed.

updated-World-Population-Growth-1750-2100

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) report;

The global urban population is expected to grow approximately 1.84% per year between 2015 and 2020, 1.63% per year between 2020 and 2025, and 1.44% per year between 2025 and 2030.

Referring to the “U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2016” annual report, as can be shown in below Figure 1-1 World Energy Consumption [1990-2040], total consumption of the energy will be increased in next decades as in projection. (refer: Energy Information Administration)

On the other hand, Figure ES-1 and Figure ES-2 provides which country & source contribution have been projected in a decade based.

figure_1-1.figure_1 and 2

Consumption Table – History & Projection [quadrillion BTU]

Non-OECD OECD
History 1990 154,94 201,06
2000 173,59 236,21
2012 310,83 238,44
Projections 2020 375,01 253,94
2030 450,50 267,23
2040 532,84 282,12

According to Consumption Table given above;

  • In 2016 approx. 600 Quadrillion BTU which equals to (600*0,293*10^15) = 175,8 PWh (Peta Watt Hour) has been consumed.  (Note: 1 BTU= 0,293 Wh)
    • In 2016, approx. 7.4 Billion people lived.
    • If we try to calculate per person energy consumption in 2016 is 23,76 Mega Watt/person.
  • In 2040 projection, the outcome is approx. 800 Quadrillion BTU which 234,4 PWh.
    • In 2040, approx. 9.2 Billion population is expected.
    • If we try to calculate per person energy consumption in 2040 is 25,47 Mega Watt/person.
  • If electricity consumption considered,  approx. 23 PWh is consumed in 2016.
    • 3100 kWh/person is the ratio of per person consumed energy in 2016. (electricity based)
  • If electricity consumption considered,  approx. 36 PWh is expected to be consumed in 2040.
    • 3910 kWh/person is the expected ratio of per person consumed energy in 2040. (electricity based)

When population growth and world energy today & projection values have been compared, below Consumption Energy & Electricity Table and Yearly Based Consumption Comparison Graph can tell the difference according to the above calculations. 2016-2040 comparison proves the growth of the population and energy demand increase. As a result of the projections, there will be consequences.

Consumption Energy & Electricity Table – History & Projection [kWh/person]

Energy Consumption [kWh/person] Electricity Consumption [kWh/person]
2016 23760 3100
2040 25470 3910

yearbased

According to the IEO2016 World Chapter Report;

Electricity consumption by end users grows faster than their use of other delivered energy sources in the Reference case, as has been true for the past several decades. Net electricity generation worldwide rises by 1.9%/year on average from 2012 to 2040, with the strongest growth in non-OECD countries. Increases in non-OECD electricity generation average 2.5%/year in the IEO2016 Reference case as rising living standards increase demand for home appliances and electronic devices as well as for commercial services, including hospitals, schools, office buildings, and retail and grocery stores. In the OECD nations, where infrastructures are more mature and population growth is relatively slow or declining, electric power generation increases by an average of 1.2%/ year from 2012 to 2040.

In my opinion, there will be positive and negative impacts related to the growth projections:

Positives:

  1. Technologic developments
  2. Robotics & Computing
  3. Process healings
  4. Digitalization
  5. High Standards & Comforting
  6. Informative Data Accessibility
  7. Renewable Energy usage increase
  8. Sustainable models will be applied

Negatives:

  1. Minimal life according to the community population
  2. Per Person energy need will be increased, as a result of that, more energy sources will be consumed.
  3. High prices will come forward for stocks and consumed electricity.
  4. City and it’s infrastructure will come across with conflict if it is not well designed!
  5. Unemployment will be increased, as a fact of digitalization, robotics, and overpopulation.
  6. Energy management complexity will be increased.
  7. There will be additions (cost) to the current electricity network for distributed generation and the connection points.
  8. The other social classes will be eliminated. There will be service&maintance sector and IT sector that will run the business.

In brief, the major changes are awaiting future projections. Only the problems can be fixed when we invest the time to build our future to become greater. Well said by Benjamin Franklin – “Without continual growth and progress, such words as improvement, achievement, and success have no meaning.”

Written by: Onur Karmis

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Are We Secured? Then Execute init.sh

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In this article, I would like to discuss security vulnerability and public awareness. In last decade, with a rapid development of technology, the life has become easier in a manner of ability to get interacted with an information and the people. Thus, improvement of the information technology has statically gone top level. Eventually, digitalization became a solution but the vulnerabilities.

Digitalization is the trend topic of business so far. Making an affordable system that can cover itself up, avoiding lacks comes via human factors, reducing incapability of systems and making self-improvements based on self-learnings are the fundamentals of the digitalization. Adding a value to the business is what the industry has focused on! And the answer can be oriented within that topic.

machine-learning-hard-apply-networking-david-meyer-brocade-490x245

Siemens has announced Industry 4.0 application and it’s competitor GE has initiated Predix that related in IoT (Internet of Things) meet with Industry (Industrial Internet of Things-IIoT). In other words, local devices get measured, monitored and controlled in order to feed that kind of platforms to have a vision that can avoid future mistakes and give insights to the users. The platforms are mostly implemented in Cloud. On the other hand, we miss something on this smartness. This digitalization is not a standalone fact that has been built by itself. Human creation can have its vulnerability within itself.

A hacker is someone who thinks from outside, is technologically-inclined, and finds unusual solutions to problems. Hackers are defined in 3 categories in color of a hat:

  • THE WHITE HAT HACKERS
  • THE GRAY HAT HACKERS
  • THE BLACK HAT HACKERS

white-gray-black-hat

Above hat color separated hackers use the common methodology in order to get what’s important but the behavior. This segmentation can be considered as purpose relation: to harm the system or not.

Researcher Max Kilge, proposed that the motivations for the hacker community can be thought of as M.E.E.C.E.S. The attackers can be outsiders or insiders according to the motivation that they have.

M.E.E.C.E.S.

MONEY

EGO

ENTERTAINMENT

CAUSE

ENTRANCE

STATUS

At the end of 2016, Ukraine grid has hacked by the Russian hackers. According to the news:

matrix

Meanwhile, it has come to light that an unconfirmed group of Russian hackers took over computers at an electricity control center to plunge parts of the city of Kiev into darkness. The hackers apparently sent malware via e-mail to employees, allowing them to steal login credentials and shut down substations. All told, the attack took out 200 megawatts of capacity—about 20 percent of the city’s nighttime energy consumption.

(refer: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603262/ukraines-power-grid-gets-hacked-again-a-worrying-sign-for-infrastructure-attacks/)

According to the Industrial Control Systems Cyber Emergency Response Team (ICS-CERT), Destructive Malware exists in our files that treat the business, the industry proceed. There are some key recommendations to avoid exploits such as frequently back-ups, accessible plug out machines, up-to-date antiviruses, system patches etc.. Which refer an operation to be scheduled and checked against the current one.

As a fact, there is enormous deployment on the side of improved technology. On the other side, there is a serious threat that comes from above-mentioned motivations by threat agents. If the growth of the technology cannot meet with increased sophistication of threats then all the development can be meant for nothing! It can be gone once for all. The result can be fatal according to the volume and the purpose.

Written by: Onur Karmis

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A Cycle of What!

“Once you get there, you need to hold it!”, that phrase reminds me simply a life. In the first step of my early career, I had some of the concerns of a job that I was willing to do. However, once I faced with difficulties of a job, I tried to get in there and to make sure doing a right thing. Eventually, success became later on.

In a manner of getting yourself ready for the business is a hard milestone that you need to reveal. It is not just related to adaptation process for overall; it contains 3 elements as adaptation, evaluation and operation processes.

Picture is taken from this slide: http://www.business2community.com/marketing/4-stages-effective-lead-generation-process-01297359#ZKEZaL3PYE8it80e.97

In adaptation process, you need to analysis your job with the basics and the details of. Trying to understand the business, to emphasize the content of the job are the main topics that should be considered in the very first beginning.

Once you started researching and have some of the conclusions regardless meaningful or not, you will sense the evaluation part has already in progress. At this part, there will be many questions and answers. Even there will be plenty of confusion for those. Do not worry about that!! You have just jumped to the phase of evaluation! As nature of the job, you need to turn yourself up to what’s becoming. Then you will be ready for the last part: being operational.

When you have progressed of the content of the job, you need to keep going to reach the other milestone, even need to add new ones to keep you and the requirements to be updated.

continuous_improvementThere are some of the key elements once you establish the steps of being operational. Such as defining criteria, making a proper plan, tracking of a plan, critical thinking, timing, meeting with the requirement, re-analysis, re-test and keeping updated. Those elements can be considered as the cycle of the project or just one of the jobs you proceed.

Being operational and keeping it up are not an easy going processes that you should pay attention mostly. Consultancy and additional requirements will come up later on. You need to have a buffer in your project plan or schedule of the job, to take into account of. Preparation of the additions and the flexibility of your current planning will define how you would well be organized in the job, sector, life… That will be also the parameter of the success once you finalize the request within an order of the plan and the time. According to the business volume and the scope of the project/job, related opportunities will come forward. Respect and satisfaction will be the additions.

In brief, you need to work hard to reach success. There are many elements and variances depending on your activity. Determination and acting are the structure of simply the life that can be applied in each kind of segment for overall processes.

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Networking & Professional Platform on Engineering: IEEE

The article is my expression in a way of being IEEE member and how I feel about it. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers – IEEE has mission statement as “to purpose is to foster technological innovation and excellence for the benefit of humanity.”

The last couple decade, the technology has been rapidly achieved growth and still on. All we are, as technology seekers, trying to be adapted to new challenges and to be fitted new technological development that surrounds us. The humanity can be considered as two different divergent paths such as innovation makers and the others. But both have united in one common purpose: to make the life easier. The technology and its development are slightly related in supply and demand gap. On contrary, scientists and researchers do not consider supply & demand relation, they always been obliged to look after efficiency in their subject to make it more reliable and useful. A subject is mostly oriented in human benefit. And in my opinion, IEEE refers itself as a great tool to work on benefit of human development.

IEEE sets the people to share their innovative ideas and supports to bring their ideas into real. In this large global organisation, people can get engaged with their profession and find their guru to establish their insights.

As a platform of IEEE can reveal in many people life and touch their each brilliant ideas with enhancing the base on the other minds. In this argument, you can get connected with people whom are a part of IEEE and you can bring the new idea in a technical way of your statement within consuming past, present and future arguments in IEEE data base. In this, the biggest engineering organisation, you are not just going to improve your ideas, even going to feel happiness just being a part of it!

In brief, if you would like to get involved in this technological development movement, go and be a part of IEEE, you should start your membership and set the future. As a fact quote from 2016 IEEE President is, Barry L. Shoop, “Leadership is about setting the conditions for others to succeed.

Get Started: IEEE Website Link #IEEE #Ambassador of 2016

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